![]() ![]() However, there were significantly fewer COVID-19 deaths in the top 10 states by vaccination uptake (73% coverage) at 75 deaths/100 000 compared with the bottom 10 (52% coverage) at 146 per 100 000 ( P < .001). COVID-19 deaths per capita in the US overall and in both state subgroups significantly exceeded those of all peer countries during the study period ( Table 1). The study was deemed not human subjects research by the Brown University institutional review board. Analyses were conducted in R version 4.0.2 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing). We used regression models to statistically compare rates across locations ( Supplement 1), with significance set at P < .005 for 2-sided tests to account for multiple testing. ![]() 6įor each period, we calculated the difference in US deaths if mortality rates of other locations were realized. We estimated excess all-cause mortality by comparing mortality in each period with mortality in 2015-2019, fitting underlying trends using prepandemic, out-of-sample validation ( Supplement 1). ![]() 3 - 5 Some mortality data from 20 were provisional.Įach location’s COVID-19 mortality rate per capita was calculated over 2 periods: (1) Delta from J(week 26), to Decem(week 51), and (2) Omicron from Decem(week 52), to Ma(week 12). 2 For other countries, COVID-19 mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization, all-cause mortality data from OECD databases, and vaccination data from Our World in Data ( Supplement 1). 1 US COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and vaccination data were obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Using previous methodology, we compared the US overall, the 10 most- and least-vaccinated states, and the 20 OECD countries with 2021 population exceeding 5 million and greater than $25 000 per capita gross domestic product ( Supplement 1). The numbers in this article show it was not primarily because of low vaccination rate. We need medical experts to undertake sound cause and effect analysis if we want to understand why the US suffered so badly from the COVID-19 epidemic. ![]() Clearly, vaccination provides a benefit, but vaccination rate falls far short of telling the whole story.Īs a data analyst I can only look at the numbers. Norway has the same vaccination rate (73%) as our 10 most vaccinated states, yet their death rate (28.7) is only a third that of our 10 most vaccinated states. There are not enough low vaccination rate data to say with any certainty, but there is some indication there may be a "knee" in the curve at around 65% where a vaccination rate above that level makes a marked difference in death rate.Īt the same time, vaccination rates above 65% do not correlate with reduced death rates. The Netherlands at 67% vaccination rate is only 4 percentage points above ours, but their death rate (24.5) is only a fifth of ours. Moreover, the US vaccination rate (63%) lags Israel (64%) by only 1 percentage point, yet Israel's death rate (44.3) is only a third of ours. vaccination rates with linear regression analysis shows poor, if any, correlation between death rate and vaccination rate. Unfortunately, the data in the article's Table 1 do not support that conclusion.Ī simple plot of death vs. The article closes with the sentence "These findings highlight that the US continued to lag peer countries in COVID-19 and excess all-cause mortality, albeit with lower mortality in highly vaccinated states" with the implication that higher vaccination rate corresponds to lower death rate. So there might be some hope that reporting differences are part of the reason our numbers are so much worse than our Western European peers. The number of reported COVID-19 deaths went way down with that change in reporting. The authors suggest on the last page that "cross-location differences may also reflect differences in COVID-19 death coding." Indeed, Massachusetts (my state) was well into the pandemic before its Department of Public Health began differentiating between people who died from COVID-19 from people who entered the hospital for other reasons and died with COVID-19. It is certainly disappointing to see that the US leads the world in reported COVID-19 deaths (111.6/100,000) and by so much - almost twice the rate of the next three countries: Austria (65.0), the UK (59.0), and Italy (54.2).
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